Population-Scale Deadline-ILS Scores for Polymarket

This dataset accompanies Empirical Evaluation of Deadline-Resolved Information Leakage on Documented Polymarket Insider Cases (Nechepurenko, 2026). It provides ILS^dl scores for 88 Polymarket markets together with the full attrition chain documenting how 12,708 candidate markets were filtered to the final scored set.

ILS^dl Formula

ILS^dl(M) = (p(T_event⁻) − p_open) / (p_resolve − p_open)

p(T_event⁻) is the market price just before the real-world event; p_open is the opening price; p_resolve ∈ {0, 1} is the binary resolution outcome. A score near 1 indicates the price fully moved before the event — a strong informed-trading signal.

Contents

File	Format	Rows	Description
data/population_ils_dl.parquet	Parquet	2,375	Full population with T_event, ILS^dl, exclusion chain
data/population_ils_dl.csv	CSV	2,375	Same data in flat CSV

Scope

• Source markets: 12,708 (military_geopolitics + regulatory_decision + corporate_disclosure, volume ≥ $50K USDC)
• After pre-filter: 2,375 non-unclassifiable markets
• T_event recovered: 442 markets (Claude Haiku + web search)
• ILS^dl computed: 88 markets (require T_event confidence ≥ 0.7 and historical CLOB coverage)
• Bootstrap CI (B=500): 78 of 88 markets

Quick start

import pandas as pd

df = pd.read_parquet("data/population_ils_dl.parquet")
scored = df[df["ils_dl"].notna()]  # 88 markets with ILS^dl
print(scored[["market_id", "ils_dl", "ci_low", "ci_high"]].head())

Distribution (88 markets)

Metric	Value
Mean	−0.515
Median	−0.395
Std	1.043
Range	−7.750 to 0.994

@misc{nechepurenko2026deadline-ils-dataset,
  title     = {polymarket-deadline-ils: Population-Scale Deadline-ILS Scores for Polymarket},
  author    = {Nechepurenko, Maksym},
  year      = {2026},
  publisher = {ForesightFlow / Devnull FZCO},
  url       = {https://github.com/ForesightFlow/datasets/tree/main/polymarket-deadline-ils},
  note      = {Version paper3a-v3, CC-BY-4.0. Accompanies: Empirical Evaluation of Deadline-Resolved Information Leakage on Documented Polymarket Insider Cases}
}