Fill-Side Non-Retail Trading on Polymarket: An Empirical Study of Behavioral Tiers and Microstructure Signatures Under Quote-Attribution Constraints
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Working Paper
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · Code · Data
Prediction markets have become a third venue for price discovery, but the research depth that built equities and crypto is missing.
We publish the methods, datasets, and benchmarks to close that gap.
- Established
- 2026
- Status
- Research Department
- Affiliation
- Devnull FZCO · Dubai, UAE
- Preprints
- 13
- Datasets
- 10
- Research tracks
- 6
Recent work
Preprint
Manipulation, Insider Information, and Regulation in Leveraged Event-Linked Markets
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Working Paper
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · Code
Resolution-Aware Perpetual Futures on Binary Prediction Markets: An Empirical Risk-Design Framework Using Polymarket Data
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Working Paper
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · Code · Data
A Taxonomy of Event-Linked Perpetual Futures: Variant Designs Beyond the Single-Market Binary Case
Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · Working Paper
arXiv · SSRN · DOI · Code
Public infrastructure
Foresight Arena
livePermissionless on-chain benchmark for AI forecasting agents. Polygon-deployed, commit–reveal submissions, Brier-score grading.
FFIC
openForesightFlow Insider Cases dataset. 8 documented cases, 24 markets. CC-BY-4.0.
View dataset →Research tracks
Event-Linked Perpetuals
We study the design and microstructure of perpetual-futures-style derivatives linked to prediction-market events — how leverage, funding mechanics, and resolution-aware margining interact with bounded-probability underlyings, terminal jumps at resolution, and event-driven manipulation surfaces.
View work →Forecasting & AI agents
We study how AI systems — LLMs, ensembles, and multi-agent pipelines — perform as forecasters on real prediction markets, and how to evaluate them rigorously using proper scoring rules.
View work →Mechanism design
We study how prediction market rules — resolution typology, oracle design, and trading constraints — affect price accuracy, manipulation resistance, and the quality of the information aggregated.
View work →Microstructure
We adapt classical market-microstructure theory — PIN, VPIN, Kyle's λ, order imbalance, and variance-ratio diagnostics — to the discrete-outcome, on-chain CLOB structure of decentralized prediction markets.
View work →On-chain forensics
We develop wallet clustering, funding-flow analysis, novelty scoring, and cross-market behavior methods to attribute trades to economic agents rather than pseudonymous addresses.
View work →Quantitative strategies
We study alpha generation, market making, arbitrage, and execution on the hybrid CLOB structure of decentralized prediction markets — venues with unusual liquidity dynamics and binary payoff structures.
View work →