Polymarket T_news / T_event Recovery

Event timestamps for resolved Polymarket markets are not available in any standard public form. This dataset releases the consolidated recovery record for 2,052 markets so that downstream work on event studies, information-leakage analysis, and price discovery can reuse these anchors directly rather than re-deriving them from scratch.

Coverage

Tier	Method	n	Confidence
Tier 1 — UMA Oracle proposer evidence	uma_proposer_evidence	12	0.95
Tier 2 — GDELT / resolved-at proxy	gdelt_keyword_match + 24h offset	1,993	0.60
Tier 3 — LLM-assisted multi-source	claude-haiku-4-5 + web_search	47	0.80–0.90
Total		2,052

Category labels reflect the v1.1 taxonomy correction (esports reclassified out of military_geopolitics).

Tier guidance

• Tier 1 (n=12) — gold standard; use as ground truth for benchmarking.
• Tier 3 (n=47) — LLM-verified with source citations; use for case studies where provenance matters.
• Tier 2 (n=1,993) — structural proxy (t_resolve − 24h); adequate for population-level analysis, not for individual market studies where the exact event time matters.

Files

File	Description
data/tnews_tevent_recovery_v1.jsonl	Full dataset (2,052 records)
data/tnews_tevent_recovery_v1.csv	Same data, CSV format
data/tier1_uma_subset.jsonl	Tier-1 subset only (12 records)
data/tier3_llm_subset.jsonl	Tier-3 subset with source URLs (47 records)

Quick start

import json

with open("data/tnews_tevent_recovery_v1.jsonl") as f:
    records = [json.loads(line) for line in f]

# High-confidence Tier 3 only
tier3 = [r for r in records if r["tier"] == "tier3_llm"]
print(f"Tier 3: {len(tier3)} markets")

@misc{nechepurenko2026tnews-tevent-dataset,
  title     = {Polymarket T\_news / T\_event Recovery Dataset},
  author    = {Nechepurenko, Maksym},
  year      = {2026},
  publisher = {ForesightFlow / Devnull FZCO},
  url       = {https://github.com/ForesightFlow/datasets/tree/main/polymarket-tnews-tevent-recovery},
  note      = {Version 1.0, CC-BY-4.0. Accompanies: Empirical Evaluation of Deadline-Resolved Information Leakage on Documented Polymarket Insider Cases (arXiv:2605.02286)}
}